SQS CEO Intelligence Report – April 1, 2025
📌 Executive Summary
Markets turned moderately bullish as fertilizer prices surged in North Africa and the U.S., middle distillates stabilized, and chartering rates increased. Jet A1 is experiencing tightening supply conditions due to SAF blending, while fraud cases tied to EN590 are being monitored. Arbitrage windows have shifted, and a few shipping anomalies triggered alerts. Economic data due Friday is expected to spark volatility.
🧠 CEO Action Points
- Monitor tight diesel and jet spreads for derivative hedge opportunities.
- Investigate arbitrage flow East for Jet A1 vs. CIF MED and MOPAG levels.
- Deploy compliance due diligence on flagged counterparties with FOB offers.
- Prepare for SAF-linked carbon adjustments under EU ETS Phase 4 expansion.
🔩 Fertilizer Markets
- Urea FOB Egypt: $390/t (+$8)
- Urea FOB NOLA: $382–390/st (+$2)
- China Prilled: $275–277/t (-$3)
- MAP Brazil: $582/t
- DAP India CFR: $585/t
🛢️ LPG, ULSD, Jet A1, and Fuel Oil analysis
| Name | ULSD 10ppm (MT) | ULSD Change | JET-A1 (bbl) | JET-A1 Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOB Med | $673.00 | $1.50 | $90.35 | $1.01 |
| CIF Med | $689.50 | $0.00 | $94.21 | $0.66 |
| FOB NWE | $684.50 | $0.75 | $92.56 | $0.79 |
| CIF NWE | $694.00 | $0.00 | $94.40 | $0.66 |
| FOB Rott | $684.25 | -$1.00 | $94.12 | $0.85 |
| FOB Singapore | $673.38 | $7.55 | ||
| FOB Arab Gulf | $648.77 | $8.83 |
📈 Forward Curve Table
| Commodity | Apr | May | Jun | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULSD | $685.75 | $683.00 | $678.25 | ↓ |
| Brent | $74.93 | $74.12 | $73.38 | ↓ |
| Copper | $8,940 | $8,870 | $8,760 | ↓ |
| LPG | $554 | $531 | $517 | ↓ |
🚢 Charter Rates Table
| Vessel Type | Rate ($/day) |
|---|---|
| VLCC | $37,000 |
| Aframax | $28,000 |
| MR | $20,000 |
| VLGC | $60,000 |
🧾 Verified Trade & Deal Ledger
No diesel or jet trades confirmed. FOB Med gasoline bids seen, unconfirmed. Diesel offers circulating but unmatched.
🧠 AI Forecast Confidence Meter
- ULSD: 83% bearish short-term
- Jet A1: 71% bullish on tightening supply
- LPG: 78% probability of short correction
🚨 Fraud Watchlist
Xport Hydrochem Asia Ltd flagged for false FOB Med diesel offers. Confirm all Jet CIF routes from Singapore intermediaries.
🛠️ Arbitrage Windows + Spread Analysis
| Spread | ULSD Spread | JET-A1 Spread |
|---|---|---|
| CIF Med – FOB Med | $16.50 | $3.86 |
| CIF NWE – FOB NWE | $9.50 | $1.84 |
| FOB NWE – FOB Med | $11.50 | $2.22 |
| CIF NWE – CIF Med | $4.50 | $0.19 |
| CIF NWE – FOB Med | $21.00 | $4.05 |
| FOB NWE – FOB Rott | $0.25 | -$1.55 |
| FOB Fuj – FOB AG | -$648.77 | -$84.69 |
🌍 Shipping Anomaly Tracker
- Ceuta STS for diesel (AIS hidden)
- LPG “Marion S” blackout from Suez to Fujairah
- Jet rerouted from Antwerp to Haifa via Limassol
📊 Macroeconomic Events & Global Risk Summary
- EU CPI due Friday → market volatility expected
- Red Sea freight disruptions raise premiums
- SAF premium stabilizes, curbing US supply
🌱 Sustainability & ECA Emissions Tracker
ULSD emissions: 193.12 kgCO2e/mt, Jet A1: 171.36 kgCO2e/mt. SAF premiums remain +$1,030/mt. LCFS-driven SAF reduction observed.
📸 Live Chart Links