QS CEO Mid-Day Intelligence Brief – March 31, 2025
📌 Executive Summary
Mid-day intelligence confirms firming freight markets in the crude and products tanker sectors, with AG-West rates trending higher amid limited prompt availability. The Arctic and North Atlantic trade lanes continue to see weather-related delays. Dry bulk volumes are under pressure from seasonal Chinese port activity slowdown, while container space remains tight on the Asia–Europe corridor. VLGC and LNG rates have shown resilience with modest gains reported week-over-week.
🛢️ Tanker Markets
- VLCC: AG–China steady at $50,000/day. WAF–China gaining momentum on forward booking spikes.
- Suezmax: USG–UKC firming; Triangulated runs showing profitable returns.
- Aframax: Mediterranean activity volatile due to repositioning and refinery re-supply cycles.
- Product tankers: MR freight eastbound from AG gaining +7% WoW; LR1 demand surging into South Africa.
🚢 Dry Bulk & Arctic Shipping
- Capesize: Pacific earnings softened due to lower steel plant uptake in North China.
- Panamax: South America grain volumes stable. Atlantic repositioning remains costly.
- Arctic lanes: Weather risks persist, transit delays increase with ice-class deployment issues.
📦 Container & Logistics
- Asia–Europe: Space tight for April bookings, especially reefer and feeder slots.
- USWC–Asia: Modest gains in westbound activity. Return logistics imbalances noted.
⛽ Fuel & Emission Metrics
- VLSFO: $620/MT Singapore. Bunker availability constrained in key AG ports.
- HSFO: Refining pressure in Russia tightening heavy fuel availability.
- ECA compliance: Baltic and North Sea monitoring delays due to AIS shadow zones.
📈 Asset Values & Charter Trends
- VLGC (5Y old): $70M (up $1.2M WoW)
- Aframax resale: $46.8M (firm on Greek interest)
- Newbuild demand: LNG carrier slots for 2027 now 60% booked at Korean yards
🧠 Compliance Snapshot
- 🟥 4 flagged vessels attempting STS operations in restricted zones
- 🟧 2 non-disclosed AIS shutdowns off Kaliningrad and Fujairah
- 🟩 Verified green corridor compliance on 5 LPG carriers this week
📊 Visual Market Heatmaps
Contact: intelligence@sterlingquantum.com
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🧠 AI Forecast Confidence (Skippy xTrendML)
- VLCC Rates: 84% confidence in bullish trend over next 5 trading days (SkippyLSTM)
- Jet Fuel Spreads: 79% bullish bias as EU refiners pull April maintenance forward
- LPG East Med Routes: 66% short-term downtrend triggered by storage oversupply
📞 Broker Voice Summary
“Product tankers are under pressure in East Africa – charters are thin but May stems could surprise.”
“Arctic lanes are tighter than modeled – 2.5x ice-class premiums being demanded.”
“VLGC relets are going quiet; expect a supply squeeze near Suez if rates jump another 5%.”
🚨 FRAUD & COMPLIANCE WATCHLIST
Route: Primorsk – Algiers | EN590 | Suspected double-booked AIS routing
Risk Score: 4.7
Route: Jubail – Mersin | LPG | False ETA declarations, flagged by shipping partner
Risk Score: 3.8
📊 Vessel Earnings & Regional Index Snapshot
| Vessel Type | Route | Earnings (Daily) |
|---|---|---|
| VLCC | AG-China | $51,400 |
| Aframax | Med-Med | $31,200 |
| LR1 | AG-West Coast India | $28,500 |
| LPG VLGC | AG-Japan | $66,000 |
🌍 Global Macro & Outlook
- EU GDP surprise print lifts refinery throughput targets by 2% YoY for Q2
- Panama drought continues to delay westbound gas cargoes – LNG arbitrage models tightening
- US Gulf – Houston jet inventories hit 6-week low, triggering restocking orders eastbound
⛽ Fuel Cost Curve & Refinery Impact
- Singapore VLSFO: $622/MT, reflecting upstream restocking and refining tightness
- Rotterdam HSFO: $495/MT, stable on low output demand from regional refiners
- ARA ULSD: $688/MT; cost curve suggests bullish April storage-led momentum
- Jet A1 Singapore: $728/MT, up 1.6% WoW; macro jet blend margins tight
⚓ Port Congestion & Routing Hotspots
- 🟥 Panama Canal: Wait times >8 days for non-booked VLGCs; booking premium exceeds $1M per slot
- 🟧 Suez Canal: Delays at 2.1 days, Jet and diesel cargoes prioritized over clean product tankers
- 🟩 Singapore: Normalizing on eastbound diesel exits; slight drawdown in naphtha supply
🌐 Emission Zones & Environmental Risk Monitoring
- 🚨 Baltic ECA detection algorithms flagged 17% AIS blackout rate for March 24–29
- ⚠️ Fujairah-linked traders have re-routed Jet cargoes through Mersin to mask origin
- 🛡️ Mediterranean-based ECA risk levels trending downward following enforcement roundtables
🛠️ Fleet Repositioning & Charter Rotation
- 🔁 LR2 vessels pulled out of AG-South Asia to support diesel cargoes into Red Sea
- 📉 Aframax vessels exiting Med have seen 5.3% rate premium increase due to asset scarcity
- 📈 Relet activity up 12% in VLGC space as owners hedge against April volatility
🧾 Chartering Premiums & Forward Sentiment
- VLCC April-early stems: +$1.10/MT premium vs March average on AG–China
- MR Med–UKC: Holding near $18,400/day as demand stabilizes post-Easter
- LNG spot Atlantic: Heating up — Q2 hedging accelerating from Iberian buyers